Reducing Australia’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Interim targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are essential to put Australia on track toward the deep emissions cuts required by 2050. This report fi nds that by 2020, emission reductions of greater than 30 per cent below 1990 levels are possible, but only with a wide range of concerted actions in the energy, industry and land-use sectors. If the contributions from energy effi ciency in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors are combined into a single category, energy effi ciency emerges as the major source of greenhouse gas reduction to 2020. Renewable electricity with gas cogeneration could provide the largest potential “wedge” of supply-side reduction. Other large potential emission savings could be obtained from halting land clearing and cutting fugitive emissions from fossil fuel production and distribution. Urgent policy development and implementation, by both federal and state governments, is needed to facilitate these and other technologies and measures. 1. Interim greenhouse gas targets are vital To prevent runaway global warming, which would become very likely if global average temperatures exceed 2 ̊C above pre-industrial levels, the world community must cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 60 per cent by 2050. In line with their responsibility for a greater share of historic emissions, developed countries would have to make reductions of at least 80 per cent in this time frame. To get on track to this target, interim targets are vital. These are particularly important in the light of evidence being published, which shows that global warming is accelerating under the action of several amplifi cation processes. A number of climate scientists and policy analysts are advising that developed nations must make GHG emission cuts of at least 30 per cent relative to 1990 levels by 2020, in order to make timely progress toward the long-term global target (Den Elzen, 2005). However, no Australian government, state or federal, has set interim reduction targets for dates earlier than 2050. The dearth of interim targets may be explained by both major Australian political parties’ hope that domestic emissions may in future be addressed by unproven technology which aims to capture, transport and bury greenhouse pollution from coal-fi red power stations (carbon capture and storage, or CCS). Yet an interdisciplinary panel of experts found that almost two decades will pass before global pick up of CCS is possible, should the technology prove to be feasible (Ansolabehere et al., 2007). 2. Business-as-usual demand growth is not sustainable The baseline or reference case for this study is the business-as-usual (BAU) “with measures” scenario published by the Australian Greenhouse Offi ce (AGO). This scenario envisages annual emissions growth from 565 Mt of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) in 2004, to 702 Mt in 2020, a total growth of 24 per cent. Such a rapid growth, if it actually comes to pass, poses an enormous challenge to an emissions reduction program. If such rapid growth is allowed to eventuate and continue beyond 2020, it would completely swamp any technological reduction measures that could be implemented over the next quarter-century. Nevertheless, we have used this AGO scenario as a baseline to 2020, while recognising that growth in energy demand and its associated emissions must be halted. 1 AAP Australian General News Wed 18 Apr 2007 6:52 pm.